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Энэ намрын чуулган эдийн засагчдыг айлгаж байна
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Эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг хэмжих нэгжүүд нааштай үр дүн харуулж буйг Дэлхийн банкны Монгол дахь суурин төлөөлөгчид хэлэх болсон.

Тухайлбал, оны эхэнд 9.9 хувьтай байсан эдийн засгийн өсөлт хоёрдугаар улиралд өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад 17.3 хувьд хүрсэн гэж тэд улирлын тоймдоо дурьджээ. Дээрх өсөлтийн гол хүчин зүйлүүд нь тээвэр болон барилгын салбарын эдийн засгийн чадамж 38-40 хувиар өссөнтэй холбоотой аж.

Мөн бий болох орлого ийн нэмэгдсэнээс үүдэн салбаруудын хэрэглээ тэлж жижиглэн болон бөөний худалдаа нь гэхэд 24.7 хувиар өсжээ. Мөн эдийн засгийн өсөлтөд өндөр хувиар нөлөөлөх уул уурхай болон аж үйлдвэрийн салбар оны хоёрдугаар хагаст 12.9 хувиар өссөн байна.

Дээрх үзүүлэлтүүдээс гадна өмнөх оны 12 дугаар сард 13 хувь байсан ажилгүйдэл энэ оны хоёрдугаар хагаст 8.7 хувь болж буурсан байна. Мөн албан бус хөдөлмөрийн зах эрчимтэй тэлж, бодит цалингийн хэмжээ энэ хугацаанд багагүй нэмэгдсэн билээ.

Гэхдээ эдийн засгийн ийм өсөлтийн төгсгөл үед инфляцийн түвшин огцом нэмэгдвэл нийгмийн эмзэг бүлгийнхэнд хамгийн сөргөөр нөлөөлдөг аж. Иймд төсвийн хэт зарцуулалтыг хяналттай байлгаж, мөнгөний сул бодлогоос зайлсхийх замаар инфляцийг хязгаарлах зайлшгүй шаардлагатай болж байгаа юм.

Монголбанкны зүгээс ч энэ асуудалд Дэлхийн банкны шинжээчидтэй санал нэгдэж ээлжит арга хэмжээнүүдээ авч эхэллээ. Тухайлбал, 2011 онд авч хэрэгжүүлэх мөнгөний бодлогын арга хэрэгслүүдээ чангатгаж, банкны секторын чухал тооцоолол болох бодлогын хүүг хэдхэн хоногийн өмнө нэмлээ.

Инфляцийн түвшин сүүлийн хэдэн сард тогтмол өсөж байгаа. Тухайлбал, Улаанбаатар хотод инфляцийн түвшин өнгөрсөн долоодугаар сард өмнөх оны мөн үеийнхээс 11.4 хувь, өмнөх сарынхаас 5.5 хувиар өсчээ. Мөн энэ сард ч тэрхүү өсөлт нь үргэлжилж байна.

Инфляци ийнхүү хурдацтай өсөж буйг нь эрчим хүчний болон хүнсний тогтворгүй үнээс хамаарлаа хэмээн дүгнэж байгаа ч үнэн хэрэгтээ эрчим хүчний болон хүнсний гол нэрийн бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ эдийн засагт хүчтэй нөлөөлөхүйц нэмэгдээгүй билээ. Дээр нь сарын өмнө Монголбанкнаас хийсэн хэвлэлийн хурлаар инфляцийн өсөлтийг шатахууны үнээр хөөрөгдсөн тээврийн зардалт, үр, угшил нь сайныг зөгнөөгүй бэлэн мөнгө тараалт байсан гэдгийг зарласан юм.

Ерөөс инфляц хөөрөгдөж буй гол хүчин зүйлийг Монголбанкныхан ч, Дэлхийн банкны шинжээчид ч төсвийн зардал 27 хувиар нэмэгдсэнтэй холбоотой хэмээн тайлбарласан юм. Тиймээс өдөр ирэх тусам гаарч буй бэлэн мөнгөний тараалтыг энд шүүмжлэхэд буруутахгүй биз.

Сангийн яам, түшээдийн зүгээс төсвийн орлого хэрхэн нэмэгдэж, гүйцэтгэл нь хэрхэн цэгцэрч байгааг ам уралдан ярьсан ч зарлагын хувьд ямар байгааг тэд огт дурсахгүй байгаа билээ. Тухайлбал, хаврын чуулганаар албатай юм шиг яарч баталсан хуулийн дагуу оюутан бүрт 70 мянган төгрөг cap бүр олгохоор болсныг боловсролын салбарт хэрэгжүүлж буй "мөнгө үрэх арга" гэж хэлэх эдийн засагч олон байна.

Дээд боловсролын санхүүжилт, суралцагчдын цалин, тэтгэлэг, тэтгэмж, нийгмийн баталгааны тухай хууль гэсэн сүржин нэртэй үрэлгэн үйлдэл "Хүний хөгжил сан"-ийн мөнгө шиг хэт хавтгайрч байна. Дээр дурьдсанаар төсвийн зарлага өмнөх оныхоос 27 хувиар өссөн нь хөрөнгийн зардал 57 хувиар, Хүний хөгжил сангаар дамжуулан иргэдэд олгож буй бэлэн мөнгөний тараалтаас шалтгаалан урсгал шилжүүлэг 48 хувиар нэмэгдсэнтэй холбоотой аж.

Төсөвт буй эрсдэлүүдийн эсрэг бодлогыг 2010 онд Төсвийн тогтвортой байдлын Тухай хуулиар баталсан. Гэвч энэ хуулийн үндсэн зарчим нь 2013 он хүртэл хүчин төгөлдөр үйлчлэхгүй аж. Ингэснээр дээрх хугацааг хүртэлх хуулийн хэрэгжилт, ялангуяа 2012 оны сонгуультай холбоотой эрсдэлүүд байсаар байх гэнэ.

Тиймээс энэ намрын чуулганаар төсвийн зардалд нэлээд анхааралтай хандахыг Дэлхийн банкны эдийн засагчид уриалах болжээ.

Манай улсын эдийн засгийн цаашдын төлөв байдал дэлхий нийтийн макро эдийн засгийн хүчин зүйлүүдээс ихээхэн хамаарна. Тэр тусмаа дэлхийн эдийн засгийн өнөөгийн тодорхой бус байдал, ирээдүйн чиг хандлага сул байгаа зэрэг нь манай улсын ойрын таван жилийн эдийн засагт өндөр хамааралтай аж.

Үүнийг баталж, Дэлхийн банкны зүгээс, "Хэрэв дэлхийн эдийн засаг дахин унавал Монгол Улс шиг жижиг, нээлттэй эдийн засаг гарцаагүй өртөнө. Энэ тохиолдолд Монгол Улсын эдийн засагт Хятад улсын бодлого маш чухал нөлөө үзүүлнэ.

Хэрэв Хятад улс учирч болох эдийн засгийн хямралын өмнөөс 2008, 2009 онд хэрэгжүүлсэн шиг түргэн, хүчтэй хариу үйлдэл үзүүлбэл, Хятадын хэрэгцээнд зориулан Монголоос нийлүүлж буй эрдэс баялгийн ачаар Монголд ирэх дэлхийн эдийн засгийн уналтын нөлөөлөл багасна. Цаашдаа 2008, 2009 оны хямралын үед эхэлсэн шинэчлэлтийн хөтөлбөрийг үргэлжлүүлснээр урт хугацааны маш амжилттай хөрөнгөжих ирээдүй Монгол Улсад байна" хэмээжээ.

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