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Монгол Улын нэгдсэн төсвийн орлогын 40 орчим хувийг уул уурхайн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний орлогоос төвлөрүүлдэг. Энэ ч үүднээс 2013 оны төсөвт уул уурхайн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүнээс нэг их наяд долоон тэрбум төгрөгийг оруулахаар тооцоолсон юм. Тухайлбал, 19.7 сая тонн алт экспортолж 121 тэрбумыг, 34 сая тонн нүүрс экспортолж 466 тэрбумыг, 945 сая тонн зэсийн баяжмал экспортолж 459 тэрбум төгрөгийг тус тус төсөвт оруулахаар төлөвлөсөн. Харин өнөөдрийн байдлаар дээрх эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүн төсөөлсөн хэмжээнд хүрэхэд даанч “хол” харагдаж байна. Оны эхний есөн сарын байдлаар 430 гаруй мянган тонн зэс, 10.3 сая тонн нүүрс, таван сая гаруй тонн алт экспортолжээ. Энэ нь төлөвлөсөн хэмжээнийхээ 50 хувьд ч хүрээгүй байгаагаас үзэхэд энэ онд эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний экспорт тооцоолсон хэмжээндээ хүрч чадахгүй гэдэг нь ойлгомжтой болж байна. Энэ жилийн төсвийн орлого нэг их наяд төгрөгөөр тасарсан  нь ч уул уурхайн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний экспортоос шууд хамаарсан гэхэд болно. Тиймээс орлогоо нөхөхийн тулд зардлаа танахаар болоод байгаа билээ.

Зарим эдийн засагч 2013 оны төсөвт эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний орлогыг хэт өөдрөг төсөөлсөн нь эргээд төсөвт дарамт учруулж байна гэж үзэж байгаа юм. Тухайлбал, өнгөрсөн жил 16 сая тонн нүүрс экспортлохоор төлөвлөсөн бол энэ жил 34 сая тонн болгож даруй хоёр дахин өсгөсөн байгаа юм. Мөн алтны экспортыг өмнөх жилийнхээс бараг дөрөв дахин нэмэгдүүлж тусгасан. Гэтэл бодит байдал дээр энэ жилийн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний экспортын биелэлт өнгөрсөн жилийн биелэлтэд ч дөхөж чадахгүй харагдаж байна. Энэ нь нэг талаараа төсвийн буруу төлөвлөлт, тооцоогүй байдалтай холбоотой.

Төсвийн тогтворжуулсан орлогыг тооцохдоо өнгөрсөн 12 жилийн уул уурхайн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ, тухайн жилийн гүйцэтгэл, гурван жилийн прогноз дээр суурилж тусгадаг байна. Өнгөрсөн 12 жилд нүүрс, зэсийн үнэ түүхэнд байгаагүй хэм­жээгээр өсч байсан үе гэж үздэг. Харин цаашид тэр хэмжээний өсөлтийг гарахгүй гэдгийг гадна дотнын шинжээчдийн аль аль нь шууд хэлж байгаа. Өмнөх жилийн гүйцэтгэлтэй харьцуулж энэ жилийн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ, хэмжээг батлах нь эрсдэлтэй гэдгийг он оны  төсвийн гүйцэтгэл харуулж байна гэхэд болно. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, бодит биш төсөөлөл гэсэг үг. Тиймээс ирэх жилийн төсвийг илүү бодит байдал­тайгаа уялдуулж хийх нь эрсдэл багатайг сануулж байгаа. Мөн эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүнийн үнийн төлөвлөлтийг маш нарийн тооцох шаардлагатай гэдгийг шинжээчид хэлж буй. Зах зээл дээр нүүрсээ 97 ам.доллараар зарж байхад Сангийн яам нүүрсний жишиг үнийг 110 ам.доллар гэж төсөвт тооц­дог. Энэхүү жишиг үнийн тооцооллоо­роо дараа жилийнхээ төсвийг төлөв­лөдөг аж. Жишээ нь, энэ онд нийт 30 гаруй сая тонн нүүрсийг  тонн тутам­даа 100 ам.доллараа экспортолж 466 тэрбум төгрөгийг тө­сөвт суулгана гэж тооцоолсон. Гэтэл зах зээлд 60-70 ам.доллараар зарж байх жишээтэй. Бүр 53 ам.доллар руу ч орсон. Энэ мэт зөрүүтэй тооцоолол нь эргээд эдийн засгаа “хорлож” байгааг хүлээн зөвшөөрөх хэрэгтэй. Тиймээс эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүний жишиг үнийн буруу ойлголтыг дариухан засч залруулах шаардлага байгаа нь харагдаж байна. Улсын төсвөө бодит төсөөллөөр тодорхойлохгүй бол 2014 оны сүүлийн улиралд яг одоогийнх шигээ төсвийн алдагдлаа хэрхэн аргалах талаар толгойгоо гашилгаад сууна гэдгийг санахад илүүдэхгүй болов уу.

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