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Чилийг анзаараарай
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Чилийг анзаараарай


Чилийн Төвбанк ирэх онд тонн зэсийн дундаж үнэ 6784 ам.доллар байна гэж тө­сөөлжээ. Энэ нь 2013 оны­хоос 7.5 хувиар бууруулж тооцсон үзүүлэлт юм. Үүний­гээ дагуулаад эдийн зас­гийнхаа өсөлтийг өмнөх таамаглалаасаа 1.0 хувиар бууруулж 4.0 хувь болгосон байна. Ингэх нь ч аргагүй. Дэлхийн нийт зэсийн хэрэг­цээний 32 хувийг дангаараа нийлүүлдэг тус улсын эдийн засаг зэсээс ихээхэн хамаа­ралтай, экспортын орлогын­хоо талаас илүү хувийг дан ганц зэсээс бүрдүүлдэг болохоор тэр. Зэсийн үнэ хэдийчинээ өндөр байна, Чилийн эдийн засаг төдий чинээ их өснө гэсэн үг. Яг л Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг нүүрс, зэсийн орлогоос ихээхэн хамааралтай байгаа шиг. Тэгэхээр ирэх он Чилид тийм ч таатай харагдахгүй байгаа бололтой. Тэд зэсийн үнийг буурна гэж харсан байна. Олон жилийн турш энэ улаан металлд найдаж “амьдарсан”, “хөгжсөн” улс лав буруу төсөөлөл гаргахгүй л болов уу. Үүнийг нэгдүгээрт, дэлхийн аж үйлдвэржсэн өндөр хөгжилтэй орнуудын эдийн засаг хүнд байдалд байгаа болон эрчимтэй хөгжиж буй орнуудын эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарсантай, хоёрдугаарт, дэлхийн зах зээлд зэсийн нийлүүлэлт нэ­мэгдэж, эрэлт буурч буйтай холбон тайлбарлажээ. Он гарсаар дэлхийн улс орнуу­дын зэсийн хэрэглээ даруй 11 хувиар буурч, эсрэгээрээ үйлдвэрлэл, нийлүүлэлт нь дөрвөн хувиар нэмэгдсэн байгаа юм. Үүний нөлөөгөөр зэсийн үнэ он гарсаар есөн хувиар буурчээ. Ирэх онд энэ байдал үргэлжлэх төлөвтэй байгаа бөгөөд зэсийн үнэ ч дагаад бага зэрэг буурах хандлагатай байгааг олон улсын шинжээчид онцолж байна. Дэлхийн банк тонн зэсийн энэ оны дундаж үнийг 7100 ам.доллар байна хэмээн тооцоолсон бол ирэх онд бага зэрэг буурч 7050 ам.доллар­тай байна хэмээн таамаг­лажээ (хүснэгтээр үзүүлэв). Тус банкны шинжээчдийн гаргасан прогнозоос харахад улаан металлын үнэ цаашид бараг арван жил тасралтгүй аажмаар сулрахаар байгаа юм. “Goldman Sachs”-ын шинжээчид ч бүр үүнээс ч доогуур буюу тонн нь 6650 ам.доллар байна гэж харсан байна. Тиймээс ирэх онд зэсийн үнийг тийм ч өөдрө­гөөр төсөөлж болохгүй нь. 

КОКСЖИХ НҮҮРСНИЙ ҮНЭ БАГА ЗЭРЭГ ДЭЭШИЛНЭ 

Он гарсаар дэлхийн зах зээл дээр 20 гаруй хувиар унаад буй нүүрсний үнэ ирэх онд ч бас таатай мэдээ дуулгахгүй бололтой. Энэ талаар “Fitch” агентлагийнхан “Хятад улс импортоо багасгаж буйн дээр Хятадын дотоодын компаниуд өрсөлдөх чадва­раа нэмэгдүүлэхийн тулд үнээ бууруулж байгаа нь дэлхийн зах зээл дээрх үнэ буурахад нөлөөлж байна. Ирэх жил ч энэ байдал үргэл­жилнэ” гэжээ. “Bank of Ameri­ca Merrill Lynch” Австралийн эрчим хүчний нүүрсний үнийг 2014 онд тонн 91 ам.доллар байна хэмээн тооцоолж байснаа 82 ам.доллар болгож бууруулсан бол “Goldman Sachs” мөн л өмнөхөөсөө буу­руулж 85 ам.доллар болгожээ. Харин дэлхийн банк 91 ам.доллар болж энэ оныхоос нэг доллараар нэмэгдэнэ гэж таамагласан байна. Коксжих нүүрсний хувьд ч нийлүүлэлтийн илүү­дэл, үйлдвэрлэлийн зард­лын өсөлттэй холбоотойгоор огцом өсөлт гарахгүй ч арай өөр дүр төрх харагдаж байгаа аж. “HSBC”-гийн мэдээлс­нээр, энэ улиралд коксжсон нүүрсний тонн тутмын үнэ 145 ам.доллар байгаа бол 2014 онд 158 ам.доллар, 2015 онд 168 ам.доллар байна хэмээн төсөөлжээ. Гэхдээ энэ нь гурван сарын өмнөх төсөөллөөс даруй 13 болон 11 хувиар тус тус бууруулсан үзүүлэлт юм байна. “Goldman Sachs”-ын хувьд 2014 онд тонн тутмыг нь 150 ам.дол­лар, “JP Morgan Chase”-ийн шинжээчид 161 ам.доллар байна гэж харж байна.  

АЛТ 1050 ДОЛЛАР БОЛНО ГЭВ ҮҮ

 Хэзээд хөрөнгө оруу­лагчдын найдвартай хадга­лам­жийн хэрэгсэл байдаг ч энэ он гарсаар 23 хувиар унаад буй алтны үнийн уналт үргэлжлэх бололтой. “Gold­man Sachs”-ийнхан бүр ирэх оны сүүлч гэхэд алт үнэ цэнээ 20 хувиар алдаж, унци нь 1050 ам.доллар болно хэмээн таамагласнаа хэдхэн өдрийн өмнө зарлалаа. Үүнийгээ Сирийн хямрал, АНУ-д үүссэн таагүй нөхцөл байдал болон эрчимтэй хөгжиж буй орнуудад эрэлт сул байгаатай холбож тайл­барлажээ. “Bank of America Merrill Lynch”-ийн хувьд ирэх оны шар металлын үнийг нь унци нь 1294 ам.доллар байна гэж төсөөлсөн бол Дэлхийн банкны шинжээчид энэ оныхоос үл ялиг буурч 1350 ам.доллар байна хэмээн таамагласан байна. Тэгвэл алтны үнэ өснө гэж тооцсон ч бас байна. “London Bullion Market Association”-ы шин­жээчид ирэх оны унци алтны үнэ 1400-г давна гэж тооцоолсон байгаа юм.

Гол түүхий эдүүдээс төм­рийн хүдэр л ойрын жилүүдэд тогтмол өсөлт үзүүлэхээр бай­гааг дэлхийн банкны прог­нозоос харж болохоор байна. 

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